Keep in mind, these are just the probabilites of the crafted erios at their current level.
It does not factor in for the probability of achieving each craft successfully in succession:
| Requirement | Quantity | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Level 1 Erios | 5 | 64% |
| Level 2 Erios | 5 | 32% |
| Level 3 Erios | 5 | 16% |
(Worst-case Scenario):
The calculation for the maximum dust required if you want a guaranteed success at each crafting step, assuming the worst-case scenario (every craft fails until the very last possible attempt before a guaranteed success):
| Level 1 |
|---|
10 attempts × 5 dust per attempt = 50 dust(0.36^10 ≈ 0.0000037% chance of all failures) |
| Level 2 |
|---|
15 attempts × 250 dust per attempt = 3,750 dust(0.68^15 ≈ 0.00012% chance of all failures) |
| Level 3 |
|---|
25 attempts × 18,750 dust per attempt = 468,750 dust(0.84^25 ≈ 0.013% chance of all failures) |
Each probability indicates the maximum number of attempts until a guaranteed craft:
Level 3 crafting in the absolute worst-case scenario (virtually guaranteed success) could require as much as 468,750 dust. This illustrates just how significantly failures compound in crafting systems with multiple probabilistic steps.
| Erio Level | Attempts (near-guaranteed) | Dust per Attempt | Maximum Dust Needed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Level 1 | 10 | 5✨ | 50✨ |
| Level 2 | 15 | 250✨ | 3,750✨ |
| Level 3 | 25 | 18,750✨ | 468,750✨ |
Realistically, the number could be lower, but this represents a safe upper bound for context.
